The Parkinson’s disease (PD) market across the seven major markets (7MM: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the UK and the US) is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9%, expanding from $3.4 billion in 2023 to $7.9 billion in 2033, according to GlobalData’s recently published report: Parkinson’s Disease: Seven-Market Drug Forecast and Market Analysis. This growth will be fuelled by the introduction of 10 pipeline products, including two disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) and innovative symptomatic treatments, the increased adoption of novel levodopa delivery methods such as AbbVie’s Produodopa/Vyalev, and a rising prevalence of PD driven by the ageing population across the 7MM.
In 2023, the US dominated the PD market, accounting for 63.3% of drug sales in the 7MM at $2.1 billion. This share is expected to rise to 70.9% by 2033, reflecting the US’s larger pool of available therapies, higher drug prices and the largest PD population. Among the 30 branded products analysed in GlobalData’s report, Acadia’s Nuplazid (pimavanserin), approved for treating PD psychosis, emerged as the highest-grossing therapy in 2023, with sales of $527.0 million, despite being exclusively available in the US. However, Nuplazid is set to lose patent protection in Q1 2030, leading to a rapid decline in sales.
The growth momentum of the market across the forecast period will be partially offset by the loss of patent exclusivity for key therapies across various drug classes. Examples are Amneal’s Rytary (carbidopa/levodopa) among levodopa therapies, Bial’s Ongentys (opicapone) among catechol-o-methyl-transferase inhibitors, Newron’s Xadago (safinamide) among monoamine oxidase B inhibitors, Kyowa Hakko Kirin’s Nourianz/Nouriast (istradefylline) among adenosine A2A inhibitors, and Supernus’ Gocovri (amantadine ER) among anticholinergics. Collectively, these therapies (including Nuplazid) accounted for $1.1 billion in sales in 2023 but are forecast to decline to $202.8 million by 2033, representing a negative CAGR of 15.3%.
Pipeline agents set to generate $3.5 billion in sales
Produodopa/Vyalev is anticipated to become the top-selling PD therapy by 2033. The drug was launched in Japan in 2023 and in five European countries (5EU: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK) in 2024, and is predicted to launch in the US in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) interviewed by GlobalData have expressed enthusiasm for its broader availability, with sales projected to rise from $72.7 million in 2023 to $1.2 billion by 2033, achieving a CAGR of 32.5%. Additional growth will be driven by the launch of 10 late-stage pipeline therapies (Phase IIb/III) within the forecast period, including two DMTs and several symptomatic treatments with novel mechanisms of action (MOAs). These therapies aim to address a range of needs, targeting core PD symptoms, levodopa-induced dyskinesia, PD dementia and PD-related falls. Collectively, these pipeline agents are forecast to generate $3.5 billion in sales by 2033.
The anticipated US launch of Roche/Prothena’s prasinezumab and Annovis Bio’s buntanetap in late 2028 and mid-2029 respectively marks a pivotal moment for the PD treatment landscape. Subsequent launches in the 5EU in 2029 are also predicted. These therapies will be the first DMTs available for PD, addressing the most significant unmet need in the field. Both of these therapies target the α-synuclein protein, a key player in PD pathogenesis. However, KOL opinions are divided on the effectiveness of this MOA, with some expressing optimism while others remain skeptical about its potential to deliver disease-modifying benefits. Despite this uncertainty, the strong demand for DMTs is expected to drive significant sales, with buntanetap and prasinezumab projected to collectively generate $1.5 billion by 2033.
Ageing population drives rising case numbers
The final key factor contributing to the significant growth of the PD market is the increasing prevalence of PD. GlobalData epidemiologists estimate that diagnosed cases of PD in individuals aged 18 and older will rise from 2.6 million in 2023 to 3.1 million by 2033 across the 7MM, representing an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.94%. The number of treated cases is similarly expected to grow, increasing from 1.9 million in 2023 to 2.3 million in 2033, with an AGR of 1.7%.
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By GlobalDataThe PD market across the 7MM is poised for significant growth during the forecast period, driven by advancements in innovative therapies, including the first DMTs, and a growing patient population. While challenges such as the loss of exclusivity for several key therapies will temper market expansion, the emergence of the late-stage pipeline, alongside the adoption of improved levodopa delivery systems (in particular, Produodopa/Vyalev), will serve as powerful growth catalysts. The introduction of DMTs in the form of prasinezumab and buntanetap will reshape the treatment landscape, addressing long-standing unmet needs. The market is, therefore, set to undergo significantly transformative change between now and 2033.