Pneumonia epidemic peaks historically occur every four to seven years, with the last epidemic of pneumonia in the UK occurring in 2019-20. As anticipated, a surge in cases has been reported in 2024. Laboratory detections from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) in 2024 have exceeded detections from the previous epidemic, with three times more cases than in 2019-20. Pneumonia, the lung infection caused by Mycoplasma pneumoniae, has variable symptomology (ranging from mild respiratory symptoms to severe pneumonia and subsequent mortality). Pneumonia occurs predominantly in children, but also affects elderly populations and those with weakened immune systems. All previously reported epidemics of pneumonia across Europe report peaks in January. Hospital admissions of M. pneumoniae increased from October 2023 to February 2024 by 461% (from 110 to 617 admissions); this increase appears to be primarily driven by an increase in admissions in children from birth to 14 years old. The peak in January was likely due to the increase of indoor socialising, travelling, and close physical contact. Leading data and analytics company GlobalData‘s epidemiologists anticipate that cases of pneumonia among children will continue to rise to a peak in January 2025 if measures to control infection are not made.
The increase in cases during the 2023-24 winter period is partly attributed to the changes in testing methods that have occurred around the Covid-19 pandemic; during the 2023-24 winter season, 89.4% (2,318 out of 2,593) of M. pneumoniae detections were determined using polymerase chain reaction tests, compared with 32.6% (302 out of 927) in 2019-20, when serological methods predominated. The increase in cases is also likely attributed to changes in community immunity or the introduction of new strains in the population.
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Since August 2002, all children under the age of two years have been encouraged to be vaccinated against M. pneumoniae, as part of their routine immunisations. The pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) protects against illnesses such as pneumonia, meningitis, and ear infections if the necessary four doses of the vaccination are administered before the child reaches two years. In January 2024, 20.2% of pneumonia cases in the UK were detected among children aged 0-4 years, 25.4% were detected in children aged 5-9 years, and 17.5% in children aged 10-14 years, contributing 410 of the 650 cases reported. According to the UKHSA report detailing the vaccination coverage statistics for children aged up to five years in the UK in 2023, 93.5% of children had received the appropriate doses of PCV at 12 months, and 88.6% had received the appropriate dose at 24 months.
GlobalData epidemiologists anticipate that in the UK in 2028, there will be 703,531 children from 0-12 months with more than two doses of PCV, and 688,337 children aged 13-24 months who have been vaccinated with more than three doses of PCV. Initiatives encouraging parents to vaccinate their children are still needed to increase vaccination coverage. It is also important to encourage the maintenance of good hygiene practices, especially during the winter months, and to focus on maintaining good nutrition, which in turn boosts a child’s immunity and the likelihood of a better pneumonia-related outcome.
