A seasonal spike of human metapneumovirus (HMPV) is causing concern in Beijing. The virus, especially prevalent in children, typically leads to mild upper respiratory tract infection after acquisition through contact with an infected human or surface. Immunocompromised individuals are vulnerable to more severe HMPV infections, and may develop wheezing and breathlessness, indicating that the lungs are affected. Many of these people will be hospitalised and for a smaller proportion, the condition may be life-threatening.
As is the case for many other respiratory infections, HMPV is most prevalent during late winter and spring, due to easier person-to-person transmission associated with increased socialising indoors in colder weather. Currently, northern China is experiencing low temperatures that are expected to last until March 2024, and GlobalData epidemiologists therefore assume that cases of HMPV will continue to increase over this period.
Experts, including Hsu Li Yang, an infectious disease physician based in Singapore, are dispelling rumours that HMPV will cause a Covid-19-style pandemic as pandemics are typically caused by novel pathogens. As HMPV is suspected to have been circulating in humans for 60 years, Dr Hsu says that people have “some degree of existing immunity due to previous exposure.” In the words of Paul Hunter, a medical professor at the University of East Anglia, England: “Almost every child will have at least one infection with HMPV by their fifth birthday and […] can expect to […] have multiple reinfections throughout life.” The symptom profile of HMPV is highly comparable to a traditional flu, so people may not be aware of previous infections.
Cases of HMPV have been reported in China, India and the UK in the winter of 2024/25, and GlobalData epidemiologists anticipate a spike in cases across these countries over the remaining cold months. The impact of increasing cases of HMPV, as well as of other respiratory viruses (such as Covid-19 and human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)), is likely to place a significant strain on healthcare systems during this time. However, cases will likely fall again as temperatures increase.
GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that in the UK, seropositive prevalent cases of RSV, a virus in the same family as HMPV, will decrease from 722,000 cases in 2025 to 701,000 cases by 2030 among boys and girls aged under 24 months. The decline in seropositive prevalent cases of RSV is likely due to improved infectious disease control and viral awareness since the Covid-19 pandemic. To prevent the transmission of HMPV, people should take precautions including good hand hygiene, avoiding crowded spaces, wearing a mask where necessary and getting the ‘flu vaccine. If these precautions are taken globally, it is unlikely that HMPV will become a cause for significant concern.
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By GlobalData