The drug has a global sales forecast of $27.42bn in 2030. Image credit: Shutterstock / oleschwander.

Eli Lilly’s blockbuster drug Zepbound (tirzepatide) has been effective in preventing the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in patients who are overweight or obese, a Phase III study has found.

Three-year data from the SURMOUNT-1 trial (NCT04184622) found that in the treatment group, pre-diabetes patients had a 94% reduction in risk of progression to type 2 diabetes compared to placebo after three years of treatment.

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The drug, which originally gained approval as a T2D drug named Mounjaro, is one of the US pharma giants flagship products, with GlobalData predicting sales of $27.42bn for the drug in 2030. GlobalData is the parent company of the Clinical Trials Arena.

Zepbound is a glucagon-like peptide receptor agonist (GLP-1ra) and gastric inhibitory polypeptide receptor (GIP) agonist.

Lilly product development SVP Dr Jeff Emmick said: “Obesity is a chronic disease that puts nearly 900 million adults worldwide at an increased risk of other complications such as T2D. Tirzepatide reduced the risk of developing T2D by 94% and resulted in sustained weight loss over the three-year treatment period. These data reinforce the potential clinical benefits of long-term therapy for people living with obesity and pre-diabetes.”

Zepbound also led to statistically significant weight reduction after three years, with average weight reductions of 15.4% in the 5mg cohort, 19.9% in the 10mg cohort and 22.9% in the 15mg cohort compared to a 2.1% loss in the placebo arm.

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The SURMOUNT-1 trial was originally read out after 72 weeks, with data showing a 22.5% weight loss in adults with obesity or overweight. The trial enrolled 1,032 participants with pre-diabetes who remained enrolled in SURMOUNT-1 for an additional 104 weeks of treatment following the initial 72-week trial.

Ongoing battle between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly

This is the latest data to be announced in the ongoing battle between the two weight loss giants Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

The pair boast the two biggest candidates in the market, with NovoNordisk’s Wegovy/Ozempic (semaglutide) expected to make global sales of $41.2bn in 2030, according to a GlobalData report.

The total obesity market was worth $2.43bn across the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) in 2021 and is predicted to achieve a CAGR of more than 31% during 2021-2031, according to GlobalData analysis.